CEE and the others   

After predictions of Austria having to file for bankruptcy were published this February/March, investors have developed special sensors to this kind of news: How is Austria’s financial system with its CEE exposure perceived? And how are local bankers describing the situation?

This year, we learned that there might be significant differences between the two. So far (the crisis is not over yet), the local bankers have an advantage because their companies still exist, they (the listed banks) do not show any losses at the bottom line, and the NPL ratios have risen sharply, but are quite far away from a real nightmare scenario.

Now, coming back to the sensors. They are starting to oscillate, since "Der Standard" cited EBRD Chief Economist Erik Bergloef saying, that Eastern Europe will lag "behind the rest of the World" in terms of growth in the coming years.

Oops, didn't our banks say that CEE remains to be the growth engine of Europe and the economy there could grow twice as fast as in the euro area in 2010?

It is a fact that the growth forecasts of domestic banks to a large extent correspond with the views of the EBRD and the IMF. But CEE is an economically diverse region. And it is also a fact, that neither Erste nor RI have proclaimed the end of the crisis, but - with reference to the expected growth - say that the upward trend will likely be laborious.